Which channels are linked to your sales?
Fit a marketing mix model to your spend
A marketing mix model reads your spend by channel against your sales, week by week, and splits the sales into a baseline, a seasonal pattern and what each channel is linked to. Put spend and sales for the same periods in one file and compare channels on the same footing instead of on each platform’s own count.
What your file needs
- One row per week or month, covering at least two years.
- Spend for each channel.
- Sales or conversions for the same period.
- With only a few months of history, or a channel whose spend never changes, the model cannot separate the channels.
- The free tool analyzes up to 10,000 rows; a larger file is randomly sampled to that size.
What you get back
- Each channel’s contribution and share of your sales, with the baseline and seasonal pattern separated out.
- Return per unit of spend and the return on the next unit, for each channel, with ranges.
- Carryover and diminishing-returns curves for each channel, showing where returns start to flatten out.
- Fit checks and a verdict on how far correlated channel spend limits the split.
- The method named and the R code.
A limit worth stating
Exported platform data can show association between spend and results. It cannot by itself prove that one channel caused a sale, and the report says so where it applies. This is the lite version of a marketing mix model: one outcome, spend by channel, and trend and seasonality as the only other controls.
Marketing mix model FAQ
What data do I need?
Your sales or conversions for each week or month, and the spend on each channel for the same periods, in one file. Each channel’s spend has to vary over time for the model to tell channels apart.
How much history do I need?
At least two years of weekly or monthly data. With only a few periods the shape of the carryover and diminishing returns cannot be told apart from noise.
How is this different from multi-touch attribution?
A marketing mix model works from totals by period across your channels. It does not follow individual customers through the touchpoints they saw, which is multi-touch attribution, a different method. For that question see marketing attribution.
What are adstock and saturation?
Adstock, or carryover, means part of a period’s spend keeps working in later periods. Saturation means each extra unit of spend returns less than the one before. The model fits both for each channel and shows the curves.
How sure can I be of the split?
The report gives ranges, fit checks and a verdict on how correlated your channels’ spend is, because channels that move together are hard to separate. It cannot by itself prove that a channel caused sales. A lift test is the way to check one channel; see the incrementality test.
Have your spend and sales ready?
Upload the file and see what we found in it before you decide to continue.
Related Resources
Guides and tools for marketing analysis
Attribution & Spend
Analysis Methods
Where to start
One email with your data and your question. We take it from there.
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